AcquaTerra. Plan a backtest

AcquaTerra

Operate the water network from risk, not hindsight.

AcquaTerra is the operating layer that connects pipe records, failure history, field work, and external stressors to ranked maintenance and capital actions.

Network History Context Risk Action
Plan a backtest See validation model

Validate on a hidden year before deployment. Then move risk into field work, renewal plans, and budget evidence.

Network Model

Unify the water network into an operational graph.

Pipes, valves, zones, work orders, repairs, inspections, breaks, pressure events, and replacements become one segment-time model with lineage, quality state, and auditability.

Assets
pipe segments, valves, hydrants, zones, material, age, diameter.
History
breaks, leaks, repairs, inspections, replacements, complaints.
Lineage
source, time, quality state, confidence, update cadence.

Forecast

Rank every segment by future operating risk.

Each segment receives a forecast window, risk score, driver evidence, confidence, and action class. The output is a prioritized operating queue, not a passive map.

Segment
stable network identity and geometry.
Window
forecast period and refresh cadence.
Drivers
material, age, pressure, weather, soils, roadwork, history.
Action
inspect, monitor, repair, renew, or defer.

Validation

Prove lift before trust.

Start with historical data and hold back the latest year. Train on the earlier period, rank segments for the hidden year, then reveal the breaks, leaks, and repairs that actually happened.

  1. 01 Train

    Use older network history, repairs, failures, and context.

  2. 02 Hold back

    Keep the most recent year hidden from model training.

  3. 03 Rank

    Score every eligible segment for future failure risk.

  4. 04 Compare

    Measure lift, recall, review load, and missed events.

Signals

Model the forces that break pipes.

Failure risk is not only age and material. Weather, soil, traffic, construction, pressure behavior, and neighborhood history change the priority of each segment through space and time.

Network condition

material, diameter, age, pressure, repair frequency, inspections.

Ground and weather

soils, flooding, drought, freeze, heat, slope, land movement.

Street activity

traffic load, road class, pavement cuts, nearby construction.

Operational history

complaints, service interruptions, field notes, prior actions.

Operations

Move risk into work.

AcquaTerra routes risk into ranked work, review queues, field checks, renewal candidates, budget evidence, and outcome tracking for the systems utilities already use.

Ranked segments

Driver evidence

Field checks

Renewal candidates

Budget scenarios

Outcome tracking

AcquaTerra

Start with a backtest. End with an operating cadence.

Bring the network, event history, and a hidden year. We will show whether the model would have ranked the risk before the year unfolded.

Plan a backtest